Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 17¢ · $260 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$260.29
$18.14
16.7¢ → 16.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 17%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $195.27 | $212.18 | +$16.91 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $34 | $35 | +$1 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $8.5 | $8.75 | +$0.25 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.5¢ | $3.5 | $3.3 | -$0.2 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $0.88 | $1.06 | +$0.18 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
Invested
$195.27
Value
$212.18
PnL
+$16.91
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$34
Value
$35
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.2
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
Invested
$0.88
Value
$1.06
PnL
+$0.18
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.