Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-10-30?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$3.5K
-$2.98
Research grade
NeutralYes at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | Yesavg 60.6¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$15.44 | 57% 93-69 (162) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $645.69 | $630.31 | -$15.38 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 39.2¢ | $335.49 | $333.41 | -$2.08 | 53% 15854-14033 (29887) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $21.29 | $21.02 | -$0.27 | 50% 33056-32624 (65680) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $12.3 | $11.7 | -$0.6 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $3.4 | $3.32 | -$0.09 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$2,498.7
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$15.44
Record
57%
93-69 (162)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$645.69
Value
$630.31
PnL
-$15.38
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$335.49
Value
$333.41
PnL
-$2.08
Record
53%
15854-14033 (29887)
Invested
$21.29
Value
$21.02
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
33056-32624 (65680)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$0.6
Record
47%
2160-2464 (4624)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.32
PnL
-$0.09
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.