Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $76 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 86%
$76.02
-$437.1
45.7¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $53.58 | $32.9 | -$20.68 | 58% 28421-20980 (49401) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $46.73 | $28.69 | -$18.03 | 58% 41507-30134 (71641) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 35¢ | $111.61 | $7.12 | -$104.49 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 63¢ | $4.41 | $7 | +$2.59 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 47.5¢ | $214.49 | $0.23 | -$214.26 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.5¢ | $38.38 | $0.05 | -$38.33 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $43.92 | $0.04 | -$43.89 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$53.58
Value
$32.9
PnL
-$20.68
Record
58%
28421-20980 (49401)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.73
Value
$28.69
PnL
-$18.03
Record
58%
41507-30134 (71641)
Invested
$111.61
Value
$7.12
PnL
-$104.49
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$7
PnL
+$2.59
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
RN1CTRInvested
$214.49
Value
$0.23
PnL
-$214.26
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Invested
$38.38
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$38.33
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$43.92
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$43.89
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.