Will Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$539.09

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 94.5¢

+17% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares7,552

Combined PnL+$414.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$183.47

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$124.76

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 78¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$479.68	50% 2499-2487 (4986)
oieshfn345	Noavg 90.9¢	$921.54	$831.48	-$90.06	57% 1677-1255 (2932)
CA Cannae	Noavg 78¢	$442.15	$464.83	+$22.67	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 87.4¢	$480.02	$442.37	-$32.85	46% 7988-9443 (17431)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$323.77	$340.48	+$16.71	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
0xheavy888	Noavg 78¢	$156	$164	+$21	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 5.1¢	$40.28	$142.87	+$102.59	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$70.2	$73.8	+$3.6	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 87¢	$67.26	$63.4	-$3.87	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$15.89	$37.04	+$21.15	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 94¢	$32.92	$28.72	-$4.2	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100	Noavg 77¢	$25.74	$26.41	+$0.5	54% 4856-4082 (8938)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$15.7	$16.4	+$1.8	47% 2270-2553 (4823)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.1	-$0.65	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.07	$2.02	-$0.06	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.26	$0.95	+$0.68	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.2	$0.6	+$0.4	63% 1756-1042 (2798)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$3,571.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$479.68

Record

50%

2499-2487 (4986)

oieshfn345

Invested

$921.54

Value

$831.48

PnL

-$90.06

Record

57%

1677-1255 (2932)

Cannae

Invested

$442.15

Value

$464.83

PnL

+$22.67

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

38791873984189

Invested

$480.02

Value

$442.37

PnL

-$32.85

Record

46%

7988-9443 (17431)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$323.77

Value

$340.48

PnL

+$16.71

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

0xheavy888

Invested

$156

Value

$164

PnL

+$21

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$40.28

Value

$142.87

PnL

+$102.59

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$70.2

Value

$73.8

PnL

+$3.6

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

foooool<$100

Invested

$67.26

Value

$63.4

PnL

-$3.87

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.89

Value

$37.04

PnL

+$21.15

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$32.92

Value

$28.72

PnL

-$4.2

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100

Invested

$25.74

Value

$26.41

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

4856-4082 (8938)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$15.7

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

47%

2270-2553 (4823)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.1

PnL

-$0.65

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.4

Record

63%

1756-1042 (2798)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.