Konyaspor vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 53¢ · $810 held · ended Oct 30

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$810.47

Combined PnL

-$52.79

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 52.5¢

-9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$321.73

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$14.98

No9 traders

Total Value$416.06

Total Shares1,104

Combined PnL-$67.76

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Yesavg 58.8¢	$155.45	$166.45	+$11	53% 2145-1905 (4050)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 57¢	$151.31	$155.29	+$3.98	55% 7057-5659 (12716)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 45.3¢	$163.17	$133.15	-$30.02	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 33.8¢	$68.32	$72.64	+$4.31	38% 3209-5230 (8439)
└ No leg	Noavg 33.8¢	$45.65	$49.96	+$4.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$22.67	$22.68	+$0.01
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$80.55	$72.26	-$8.28	59% 45380-31733 (77113)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$81.45	$64.12	-$17.33	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$48.43	$51.85	+$3.41	59% 9935-6911 (16846)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$49.95	$41.07	-$8.88	50% 10770-10596 (21366)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$37.38	$32.93	-$4.45	54% 56326-48479 (104805)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$20.5	$18.5	-$2	47% 4525-5012 (9537)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$1.36	$1.22	-$0.13	58% 41507-30134 (71641)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$1.04	$0.96	-$0.08	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Yes

Invested

$155.45

Value

$166.45

PnL

+$11

Record

53%

2145-1905 (4050)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$151.31

Value

$155.29

PnL

+$3.98

Record

55%

7057-5659 (12716)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$163.17

Value

$133.15

PnL

-$30.02

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$68.32

Value

$72.64

PnL

+$4.31

Record

38%

3209-5230 (8439)

Both legs:

No$45.6533.8¢+$4.3

Yes$22.6763¢+$0.01

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$80.55

Value

$72.26

PnL

-$8.28

Record

59%

45380-31733 (77113)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$81.45

Value

$64.12

PnL

-$17.33

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$48.43

Value

$51.85

PnL

+$3.41

Record

59%

9935-6911 (16846)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$41.07

PnL

-$8.88

Record

50%

10770-10596 (21366)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$37.38

Value

$32.93

PnL

-$4.45

Record

54%

56326-48479 (104805)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Invested

$20.5

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$2

Record

47%

4525-5012 (9537)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

41507-30134 (71641)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.