Kocaelispor vs. Çaykur Rizespor: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.3K
$70.79
49.1¢ → 50.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 49.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$33.78 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
 us391 | Underavg 49¢ | $674.43 | $701.96 | +$27.53 | 51% 1683-1646 (3329) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 49¢ | $295.82 | $304.88 | +$9.06 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $31.85 | $32.18 | +$0.32 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.55 | +$0.1 | 48% 2389-2622 (5011) |
Invested
$1,244.48
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$33.78
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
us391Invested
$674.43
Value
$701.96
PnL
+$27.53
Record
51%
1683-1646 (3329)
0xheavy888Invested
$295.82
Value
$304.88
PnL
+$9.06
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$31.85
Value
$32.18
PnL
+$0.32
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
2389-2622 (5011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.