Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 28¢ · $430 held · ended Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$430.34

Combined PnL

-$50.95

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 27.5¢

-24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$404.62

Total Shares1,269

Combined PnL-$52.85

No2 traders

Total Value$25.72

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$1.9

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$431.91	$375.4	-$53.79	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$22.93	$24.79	+$1.86	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$22.32	$24.22	+$1.9	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.7¢	$5.35	$4.43	-$0.92	48% 2389-2622 (5011)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.5	+$0	53% 15954-14130 (30084)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$431.91

Value

$375.4

PnL

-$53.79

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.93

Value

$24.79

PnL

+$1.86

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$22.32

Value

$24.22

PnL

+$1.9

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.35

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.