Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 65¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$50.65

Smart Money Entry

62.5¢ → 64.5¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,143

Combined PnL+$50.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$42.51

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$0.55

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
heyboy800	Noavg 62¢	$1.0K	$991.94	-$8.06	61% 944-594 (1538)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 64¢	$770.29	$818.36	-$30.15	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
CA Cannae	Noavg 62.1¢	$694.75	$715.89	+$21.15	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 62¢	$569.16	$619.65	+$50.49	50% 33395-32964 (66359)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 63¢	$508.71	$508.87	-$14.9	57% 1719-1292 (3011)
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$322.97	$330.66	+$7.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$185.74	$178.21	-$22.59
HRTrading	Noavg 62.2¢	$143.83	$155.58	+$11.75	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 62¢	$41.54	$45.56	+$4.02	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$40.36	$40.91	+$0.55	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 61¢	$39.07	$39.39	+$0.32	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 62¢	$8.06	$8.71	+$0.65	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.2	$6.15	-$0.05	51% 1445-1388 (2833)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.6	+$0	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

heyboy800

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991.94

PnL

-$8.06

Record

61%

944-594 (1538)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$770.29

Value

$818.36

PnL

-$30.15

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

Cannae

Invested

$694.75

Value

$715.89

PnL

+$21.15

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

SnakeBall

Invested

$569.16

Value

$619.65

PnL

+$50.49

Record

50%

33395-32964 (66359)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$508.71

Value

$508.87

PnL

-$14.9

Record

57%

1719-1292 (3011)

Both legs:

No$322.9763¢+$7.69

Yes$185.7437¢-$22.59

HRTrading

Invested

$143.83

Value

$155.58

PnL

+$11.75

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$41.54

Value

$45.56

PnL

+$4.02

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.36

Value

$40.91

PnL

+$0.55

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$39.07

Value

$39.39

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.