Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 31¢ · $524 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$524.14
-$60.9
55.9¢ → 31¢
-45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $212.62 | $207.22 | -$5.4 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61¢ | $150.67 | $119.8 | -$30.87 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 36.5¢ | $61.95 | $87.42 | +$25.47 | |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 59.2¢ | $155.26 | $157.26 | +$2 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 64.7¢ | $107.98 | $46.7 | -$61.28 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Overavg 71¢ | $34.01 | $36.88 | +$2.87 | 53% 2250-1980 (4230) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 28.4¢ | $29.27 | $33.46 | +$4.19 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $24.99 | $22.05 | -$2.94 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $15.03 | $15.03 | +$0 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $11.3 | $5.55 | -$5.75 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
Invested
$212.62
Value
$207.22
PnL
-$5.4
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Both legs:
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$155.26
Value
$157.26
PnL
+$2
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$107.98
Value
$46.7
PnL
-$61.28
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$34.01
Value
$36.88
PnL
+$2.87
Record
53%
2250-1980 (4230)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$29.27
Value
$33.46
PnL
+$4.19
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$24.99
Value
$22.05
PnL
-$2.94
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$15.03
Value
$15.03
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.3
Value
$5.55
PnL
-$5.75
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.