Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-11-01?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$4.8K
$244.56
85.5¢ → 96.9¢
+13% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 85¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$136.82 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 86¢ | $981.86 | $1.1K | +$102.88 | 61% 13793-8671 (22464) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $986.04 | $1.0K | +$17.12 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 86¢ | $366.79 | $358.26 | -$8.53 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 85.5¢ | $351.64 | $347.57 | -$4.07 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $61.59 | $61.78 | +$0.19 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
FO foooool<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $49.8 | $50.4 | +$0.6 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $5.25 | $5.25 | +$0 | 53% 16119-14285 (30404) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $2.17 | $1.71 | -$0.46 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
Invested
$1,734.42
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$136.82
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$981.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$102.88
Record
61%
13793-8671 (22464)
oieshfn345Invested
$986.04
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$17.12
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
Invested
$366.79
Value
$358.26
PnL
-$8.53
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$351.64
Value
$347.57
PnL
-$4.07
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$61.59
Value
$61.78
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$50.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
16119-14285 (30404)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.17
Value
$1.71
PnL
-$0.46
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.