Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: 1st Half O/U 0.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $543 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$542.7
-$36.76
98.7¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 99¢ | $354.89 | $320.89 | -$34 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 49.2¢ | $205.9 | $207.14 | +$1.24 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $13.28 | $7.21 | -$6.07 | 77% 3443-1052 (4495) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 44.3¢ | $3.99 | $4.46 | +$0.46 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $1.4 | $3.01 | +$1.61 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$354.89
Value
$320.89
PnL
-$34
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
RN1CTRInvested
$205.9
Value
$207.14
PnL
+$1.24
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$7.21
PnL
-$6.07
Record
77%
3443-1052 (4495)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.99
Value
$4.46
PnL
+$0.46
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$1.61
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.