Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK end in a draw?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$2.9K
$112.82
79.6¢ → 84.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 79.6¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$130.74 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $820.62 | $867.28 | +$46.65 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $46.03 | $43.98 | -$2.05 | 61% 13793-8671 (22464) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $90.8 | $27.2 | -$63.61 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $6.32 | $7.11 | +$0.79 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $5.7 | $5.89 | +$0.19 | 50% 19451-19817 (39268) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.46 | $1.55 | +$0.09 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
Invested
$1,770.92
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$130.74
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
oieshfn345Invested
$820.62
Value
$867.28
PnL
+$46.65
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
Invested
$46.03
Value
$43.98
PnL
-$2.05
Record
61%
13793-8671 (22464)
Invested
$90.8
Value
$27.2
PnL
-$63.61
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$6.32
Value
$7.11
PnL
+$0.79
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.89
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
19451-19817 (39268)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.