Kasımpaşa SK vs. Beşiktaş JK: Both Teams to Score
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $460 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$459.67
-$101.27
56.8¢ → 100¢
+76% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $179.32 | $175.15 | -$4.17 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $113.06 | $107.35 | -$5.71 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.3¢ | $66.26 | $67.8 | +$1.54 | |
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $172 | $127.5 | -$44.5 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $82.76 | $88.69 | +$5.93 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $98 | $65.28 | -$20.1 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $2.45 | $2.51 | +$0.06 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.6¢ | $43.2 | $0.53 | -$42.66 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
Invested
$179.32
Value
$175.15
PnL
-$4.17
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$172
Value
$127.5
PnL
-$44.5
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$82.76
Value
$88.69
PnL
+$5.93
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$98
Value
$65.28
PnL
-$20.1
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.51
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$0.53
PnL
-$42.66
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.