Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-11-01?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$0.37

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 63¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,629

Combined PnL-$0.54

No2 traders

Total Value$54.48

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.18

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 62.5¢	$760.54	$778.24	-$0.54	50% 7122-7164 (14286)
HRTrading	Yesavg 64¢	$264.32	$264.32	+$0	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 37¢	$222.89	$41.32	+$0	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$13.51	$13.16	+$0.18	53% 16112-14276 (30388)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$760.54

Value

$778.24

PnL

-$0.54

Record

50%

7122-7164 (14286)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$264.32

Value

$264.32

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$222.89

Value

$41.32

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$13.51

Value

$13.16

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.