Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (85%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor: O/U 4.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 15¢ · $40 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 75%
$40.19
-$197.54
34.6¢ → 15¢
-57% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 85%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 16.4¢ | $68.08 | $16.62 | -$51.46 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $2.97 | $14.03 | +$10.89 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $2.52 | $9.45 | +$6.93 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Underavg 82¢ | $164 | $0.1 | -$163.9 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
Invested
$68.08
Value
$16.62
PnL
-$51.46
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
$14.03
PnL
+$10.89
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$6.93
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$164
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$163.9
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.