Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 93¢ · $440 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
4
Over 100%
$440.38
$86.98
77.4¢ → 93¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 58¢ | $116 | $199.9 | +$83.9 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
VA Vampiro1 | Overavg 98¢ | $200 | $189.8 | -$10.2 | 77% 3438-1046 (4484) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 74¢ | $24.79 | $31.15 | +$6.36 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $12.61 | $19.53 | +$6.92 | 63% 1197-693 (1890) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.