Spread: Rams Başakşehir FK (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rams Başakşehir FK (43%) · Rams Başakşehir FK at 90¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
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Neutral
Rams Başakşehir FK
7
Rams Başakşehir FK 43%
$2.0K
-$851.65
77.5¢ → 90.5¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralRams Başakşehir FK at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Rams Başakşehir FKavg 77¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$471.11 | 50% 25648-25477 (51125) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Samsunsporavg 69.8¢ | $629.12 | $238.93 | -$390.19 | 55% 7314-5881 (13195) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Samsunsporavg 68.5¢ | $156 | $162 | +$6 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Rams Başakşehir FKavg 85.2¢ | $84.44 | $86.48 | +$2.05 | 48% 8942-9563 (18505) |
 poshposh<$100 | Rams Başakşehir FKavg 85.1¢ | $19.36 | $20.96 | +$1.6 | 58% 10657-7637 (18294) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Samsunsporavg 27¢ | $8.1 | $8.1 | +$0 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Samsunsporavg 27¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 50% 11176-10983 (22159) |
Invested
$1,980.83
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$471.11
Record
50%
25648-25477 (51125)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$629.12
Value
$238.93
PnL
-$390.19
Record
55%
7314-5881 (13195)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$156
Value
$162
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
Invested
$84.44
Value
$86.48
PnL
+$2.05
Record
48%
8942-9563 (18505)
poshposh<$100Invested
$19.36
Value
$20.96
PnL
+$1.6
Record
58%
10657-7637 (18294)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
11176-10983 (22159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.