Will Samsunspor win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$437.62

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 99.4¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,984

Combined PnL+$507.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.75

Total Shares2,425

Combined PnL-$70

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 92¢	$6.3K	$6.8K	+$494.59	93% 875-63 (938)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87.9¢	$92.74	$104.87	+$12.13	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$19.04	$9.03	-$10.01	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$52.05	$8.22	-$43.83	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.94	+$0.79	58% 18782-13844 (32626)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$3.94	$4.05	+$0.12	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$13.5	$2.16	-$11.34	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$6.25	$1.34	-$4.82	57% 1814-1366 (3180)

Momo63

Invested

$6,319.81

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$494.59

Record

93%

875-63 (938)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$92.74

Value

$104.87

PnL

+$12.13

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.04

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$10.01

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.05

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$43.83

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.5

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$11.34

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.25

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$4.82

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.