Will Rams Başakşehir FK win on 2026-11-01?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes93¢No7¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$90.76

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 92.5¢

+50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,611

Combined PnL+$134.28

No2 traders

Total Value$308.62

Total Shares1,323

Combined PnL-$225.04

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fraj0la	Yesavg 55¢	$500	$672.73	-$4.54	63% 234-135 (369)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 71.9¢	$386.29	$484.77	+$98.48	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 46¢	$405.48	$273.26	-$132.22	49% 167-174 (341)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Yesavg 73.8¢	$71.96	$78.94	+$6.98	61% 13791-8667 (22458)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$29.67	$55.7	+$26.04	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 81.3¢	$38.61	$43.7	+$5.09	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 29¢	$128.18	$35.36	-$92.82	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$14.3	$7.4	+$2.3	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$5.45	$5.4	-$0.05	58% 18782-13844 (32626)

fraj0la

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$672.73

PnL

-$4.54

Record

63%

234-135 (369)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$386.29

Value

$484.77

PnL

+$98.48

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$405.48

Value

$273.26

PnL

-$132.22

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

Lilybaeum<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.96

Value

$78.94

PnL

+$6.98

Record

61%

13791-8667 (22458)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.67

Value

$55.7

PnL

+$26.04

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.61

Value

$43.7

PnL

+$5.09

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$128.18

Value

$35.36

PnL

-$92.82

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.3

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$2.3

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

BillBenter2026<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

18782-13844 (32626)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.