Fenerbahçe SK vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 4.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 90¢ · $956 held · ended Oct 31

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$956.37

Combined PnL

$28.66

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 90¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$920.69

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL+$75.6

Over1 trader

Total Value$35.67

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$46.94

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 78¢	$381.37	$415.6	+$34.23	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
0xheavy888	Underavg 77.5¢	$303.98	$339.24	+$35.26	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 85.9¢	$66.98	$68.25	+$1.27	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 89¢	$60.6	$60.94	+$0.34	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 78¢	$31.95	$36.66	+$4.51	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$82.61	$35.67	-$46.94	59% 45819-32178 (77997)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$381.37

Value

$415.6

PnL

+$34.23

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$303.98

Value

$339.24

PnL

+$35.26

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$66.98

Value

$68.25

PnL

+$1.27

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$60.6

Value

$60.94

PnL

+$0.34

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.95

Value

$36.66

PnL

+$4.51

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.61

Value

$35.67

PnL

-$46.94

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.