Fenerbahçe SK vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 74¢ · $637 held · ended Oct 31

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$636.51

Combined PnL

-$15.57

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 73.5¢

+23% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$116.06

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$17.1

Over3 traders

Total Value$10.53

Total Shares21

Combined PnL+$1.52

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$378.73	$437.46	+$58.72	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$256.69	$314.44	+$57.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.3¢	$122.05	$123.02	+$0.97
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 28¢	$72.48	$72.47	-$0.02	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
└ Over leg	Overavg 28¢	$49.98	$49.98	+$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 72.1¢	$22.5	$22.49	-$0.02
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 59¢	$74.51	$63.15	-$11.37	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 60¢	$43.31	$36.09	-$7.22	48% 927-999 (1926)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 70¢	$7	$7.5	+$0.5	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 42.6¢	$5.13	$6.03	+$0.89	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 59¢	$5.9	$5	-$0.9	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 57.7¢	$27.88	$4.32	+$1.89	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.5	+$0.35	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$1.72	$2	+$0.28	53% 4646-4187 (8833)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$378.73

Value

$437.46

PnL

+$58.72

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Under$256.6960¢+$57.75

Over$122.0526.3¢+$0.97

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$72.48

Value

$72.47

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Both legs:

Over$49.9828¢+$0

Under$22.572.1¢-$0.02

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$74.51

Value

$63.15

PnL

-$11.37

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$43.31

Value

$36.09

PnL

-$7.22

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.89

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

PnL

-$0.9

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$27.88

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$1.89

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.72

Value

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.