Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Fenerbahçe SK vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 2.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$0.46

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 45.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,953

Combined PnL+$4.78

Over2 traders

Total Value$139.62

Total Shares227

Combined PnL-$4.31

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$802.09	$863.94	+$61.85	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 50¢	$505.46	$379.09	-$126.37	48% 927-999 (1926)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$337.65	$370.59	+$32.93	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$218.76	$238.43	+$19.67
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.9¢	$118.89	$132.16	+$13.26
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$326	$200	+$4	55% 7125-5714 (12839)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$126	$127	+$1
└ Under leg	Underavg 35¢	$70	$73	+$3
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 36¢	$86.53	$149.03	+$62.49	50% 33398-32968 (66366)
LI LilybaeumARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$145.13	$146.08	+$0.95	62% 13708-8572 (22280)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$113.63	$114.61	+$0.98
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$31.5	$31.47	-$0.03
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Overavg 66¢	$119.88	$114.43	-$4.54	55% 1743-1435 (3178)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 41.3¢	$79.44	$84.21	+$4.78	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.3¢	$43.88	$48.32	+$4.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$35.56	$35.89	+$0.33
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$25.75	$32.54	+$6.79	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 55¢	$24.97	$25.2	+$0.23	50% 10864-10681 (21545)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$802.09

Value

$863.94

PnL

+$61.85

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$505.46

Value

$379.09

PnL

-$126.37

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$337.65

Value

$370.59

PnL

+$32.93

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Over$218.7650¢+$19.67

Under$118.8940.9¢+$13.26

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$326

Value

$200

PnL

+$4

Record

55%

7125-5714 (12839)

Both legs:

Invested

$86.53

Value

$149.03

PnL

+$62.49

Record

50%

33398-32968 (66366)

LilybaeumARB<$100

Over

Invested

$145.13

Value

$146.08

PnL

+$0.95

Record

62%

13708-8572 (22280)

Both legs:

Over$113.6354¢+$0.98

Under$31.545.5¢-$0.03

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Over

Invested

$119.88

Value

$114.43

PnL

-$4.54

Record

55%

1743-1435 (3178)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$79.44

Value

$84.21

PnL

+$4.78

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Under$43.8841.3¢+$4.45

Over$35.5654¢+$0.33

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.75

Value

$32.54

PnL

+$6.79

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$24.97

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.