Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Fenerbahçe SK, while the market favors Göztepe SK (58%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Fenerbahçe SK (80%) · Fenerbahçe SK at 42¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Fenerbahçe SK
5
Fenerbahçe SK 80%
$2.5K
-$228.66
45.8¢ → 42¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralFenerbahçe SK at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Göztepe SK 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Fenerbahçe SKavg 46¢ | $4.5K | $1.9K | -$200.84 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Fenerbahçe SKavg 45¢ | $405 | $378 | -$13.5 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Fenerbahçe SKavg 45¢ | $400 | $166 | -$14 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Göztepe SKavg 57¢ | $88.81 | $90.37 | +$1.56 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Fenerbahçe SKavg 44¢ | $41.36 | $39.48 | -$1.88 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
Invested
$4,463
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$200.84
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$405
Value
$378
PnL
-$13.5
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$400
Value
$166
PnL
-$14
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$88.81
Value
$90.37
PnL
+$1.56
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$39.48
PnL
-$1.88
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.