Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 95¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$11.6K
-$348.75
93.4¢ → 94.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $8.3K | $8.2K | -$24.73 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90.5¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$57.45 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 83¢ | $510.26 | $519.84 | +$9.58 | 57% 1729-1293 (3022) |
 ER72SENCTR | Yesavg 11.9¢ | $700 | $352.38 | -$347.62 | 67% 300-149 (449) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 15.3¢ | $209.1 | $273.75 | +$64.65 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $77.55 | $85.31 | +$7.76 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $62.38 | $59.26 | -$3.13 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $52.81 | $51.28 | -$1.54 | 53% 15956-14132 (30088) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $34.4 | $32.47 | +$0.19 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $27.82 | $29.45 | +$1.63 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $17.3 | $18.9 | +$1.6 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $16.14 | $16.45 | +$0.3 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
Invested
$8,254.98
Value
$8.2K
PnL
-$24.73
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$2,020.69
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$57.45
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
oieshfn345Invested
$510.26
Value
$519.84
PnL
+$9.58
Record
57%
1729-1293 (3022)
ER72SENCTRInvested
$700
Value
$352.38
PnL
-$347.62
Record
67%
300-149 (449)
Invested
$209.1
Value
$273.75
PnL
+$64.65
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$77.55
Value
$85.31
PnL
+$7.76
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$62.38
Value
$59.26
PnL
-$3.13
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$52.81
Value
$51.28
PnL
-$1.54
Record
53%
15956-14132 (30088)
Invested
$34.4
Value
$32.47
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$27.82
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$1.63
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.3
Value
$18.9
PnL
+$1.6
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.14
Value
$16.45
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.