Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Göztepe SK end in a draw?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 84¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$1.6K
-$70.29
80.8¢ → 83.5¢
+3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 79¢ | $396.58 | $414.15 | +$17.57 | 57% 1729-1293 (3022) |
FO foooool | Noavg 80.8¢ | $375.15 | $369 | -$6.15 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
 0xheavy888 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $330 | $330 | +$0 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $386.71 | $300.62 | -$86.09 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
LI Lilybaeum | Noavg 83¢ | $141.91 | $144.48 | +$2.56 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $38.49 | $40.04 | +$1.55 | 50% 25104-24842 (49946) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $31.98 | $32.18 | +$0.19 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $4.86 | $4.95 | +$0.09 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.05 | $1.03 | -$0.02 | 53% 4646-4187 (8833) |
oieshfn345Invested
$396.58
Value
$414.15
PnL
+$17.57
Record
57%
1729-1293 (3022)
Invested
$375.15
Value
$369
PnL
-$6.15
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
0xheavy888Invested
$330
Value
$330
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$386.71
Value
$300.62
PnL
-$86.09
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
Invested
$141.91
Value
$144.48
PnL
+$2.56
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
Invested
$38.49
Value
$40.04
PnL
+$1.55
Record
50%
25104-24842 (49946)
Invested
$31.98
Value
$32.18
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
4646-4187 (8833)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.