Erzurumspor FK vs. Çorum FK: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 29%
$8.6K
-$10.55
54.2¢ → 54¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 54.2¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$17.47 | 49% 19143-19539 (38682) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$0 | 51% 1683-1643 (3326) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $400.04 | $404.39 | +$4.35 | 58% 41846-30383 (72229) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 45.5¢ | $182 | $184 | +$2 | 55% 7117-5711 (12828) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 53¢ | $137.11 | $139.7 | +$2.59 | 50% 33353-32915 (66268) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 46.8¢ | $140 | $137.54 | -$2.46 | 58% 5848-4289 (10137) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $25.77 | $26.21 | +$0.44 | 59% 45754-32097 (77851) |
Invested
$4,876.58
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$17.47
Record
49%
19143-19539 (38682)
us391CTRInvested
$2,889.81
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1683-1643 (3326)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$400.04
Value
$404.39
PnL
+$4.35
Record
58%
41846-30383 (72229)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$182
Value
$184
PnL
+$2
Record
55%
7117-5711 (12828)
Invested
$137.11
Value
$139.7
PnL
+$2.59
Record
50%
33353-32915 (66268)
Invested
$140
Value
$137.54
PnL
-$2.46
Record
58%
5848-4289 (10137)
Invested
$25.77
Value
$26.21
PnL
+$0.44
Record
59%
45754-32097 (77851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.