Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Eyüpspor, while the market favors Amed Sportif (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Amed Sportif (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Eyüpspor (50%) · Eyüpspor at 49¢ · $570 held · ends Nov 1

Amed Sportif51¢Eyüpspor49¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eyüpspor

Consensus Traders

Eyüpspor 50%

Total Value

$570.01

Combined PnL

$2.1

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 49¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralEyüpspor at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eyüpspor

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Amed Sportif 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Amed Sportif51%

Eyüpspor49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eyüpspor2 traders

Total Value$459.86

Total Shares938

Combined PnL-$0

Amed Sportif2 traders

Total Value$110.15

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$2.1

Eyüpspor — 50%Amed Sportif — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Eyüpsporavg 49¢	$428.5	$428.5	-$0	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
KK kkpay19888	Amed Sportifavg 50¢	$106.77	$108.91	+$2.14	51% 540-521 (1061)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Eyüpsporavg 49¢	$31.36	$31.36	+$0	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Amed Sportifavg 52¢	$1.31	$1.25	-$0.04	52% 7485-6781 (14266)

VeryLucky888CTR

Eyüpspor

Invested

$428.5

Value

$428.5

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

kkpay19888

Amed Sportif

Invested

$106.77

Value

$108.91

PnL

+$2.14

Record

51%

540-521 (1061)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Eyüpspor

Invested

$31.36

Value

$31.36

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

ameisgoat11<$100

Amed Sportif

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.04

Record

52%

7485-6781 (14266)

Research grade

NeutralEyüpspor at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Eyüpspor

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Amed Sportif 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eyüpspor wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.