Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-11-01?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 21¢ · $549 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$549.29
$13.3
21.1¢ → 20.5¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 21¢ | $269.43 | $275.84 | +$6.41 | 50% 33515-33076 (66591) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $88.99 | $88.99 | +$0 | 49% 12704-13137 (25841) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.6¢ | $85.19 | $88.8 | +$3.61 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.3¢ | $53.01 | $56.28 | +$3.27 | 53% 15998-14180 (30178) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.7¢ | $28.81 | $28.6 | -$0.21 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $4.77 | $4.59 | -$0.03 | 92% 2995-245 (3240) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 20.7¢ | $6.2 | $4.3 | +$0.3 | 58% 42088-30563 (72651) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $1.75 | $1.9 | -$0.04 | 48% 2435-2653 (5088) |
Invested
$269.43
Value
$275.84
PnL
+$6.41
Record
50%
33515-33076 (66591)
Invested
$88.99
Value
$88.99
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12704-13137 (25841)
Invested
$85.19
Value
$88.8
PnL
+$3.61
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
Invested
$53.01
Value
$56.28
PnL
+$3.27
Record
53%
15998-14180 (30178)
Invested
$28.81
Value
$28.6
PnL
-$0.21
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0.03
Record
92%
2995-245 (3240)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$6.2
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
42088-30563 (72651)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
48%
2435-2653 (5088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.