Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$586.57
$76.18
84.4¢ → 98.4¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Noavg 83.4¢ | $434.04 | $495.33 | +$61.3 | 50% 937-950 (1887) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $14.13 | $36.04 | +$21.91 | 47% 2032-2248 (4280) |
NO nonkenny90<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $29.44 | $30.45 | +$1.04 | 89% 4590-544 (5134) |
 tetrase<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $24.47 | $23.96 | +$0.64 | 60% 803-538 (1341) |
SI simplemanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $9.5 | $0.79 | -$8.71 | 47% 456-519 (975) |
smellyEllieInvested
$434.04
Value
$495.33
PnL
+$61.3
Record
50%
937-950 (1887)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$14.13
Value
$36.04
PnL
+$21.91
Record
47%
2032-2248 (4280)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$30.45
PnL
+$1.04
Record
89%
4590-544 (5134)
tetrase<$100Invested
$24.47
Value
$23.96
PnL
+$0.64
Record
60%
803-538 (1341)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$8.71
Record
47%
456-519 (975)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.