Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$8.3K
$254.24
77.4¢ → 87¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Noavg 77.1¢ | $5.5K | $5.3K | +$158.7 | 50% 937-951 (1888) |
 tetrase | Noavg 78¢ | $2.6K | $2.9K | +$115.86 | 60% 803-538 (1341) |
SI simplemanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.8¢ | $60.34 | $49.53 | -$10.81 | 47% 456-519 (975) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $22.5 | $13 | -$9.5 | 76% 519-162 (681) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.