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2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$1.4K
$242.45
69.9¢ → 79.7¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Yesavg 67¢ | $970.99 | $796.82 | +$183.07 | 82% 1733-388 (2121) |
 bigshort | Yesavg 73.5¢ | $592.21 | $637.45 | +$49.79 | 83% 355-71 (426) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR<$100 | Noavg 18¢ | $27 | $1.96 | +$9.59 | 38% 168-278 (446) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.