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2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 60¢ · $466 held · ends Dec 1

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$465.56

Combined PnL

$5.94

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 59.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$321.44

Total Shares544

Combined PnL+$0.11

No2 traders

Total Value$144.12

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$5.83

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllie	Yesavg 59.5¢	$294.3	$291.69	-$0.14	50% 933-945 (1878)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 38.8¢	$89.6	$136.12	+$5.53	36% 14490-25940 (40430)
Rex416<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$29.5	$29.75	+$0.25	57% 2498-1886 (4384)
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$7.8	$8	+$0.3	56% 248-193 (441)

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$294.3

Value

$291.69

PnL

-$0.14

Record

50%

933-945 (1878)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$89.6

Value

$136.12

PnL

+$5.53

Record

36%

14490-25940 (40430)

Rex416<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.5

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

57%

2498-1886 (4384)

KiruaTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

248-193 (441)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.5%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.