Trump declassifies new UFO files by November 15?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 95¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$11.8K
-$270.03
89.5¢ → 94.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 90.3¢ | $8.4K | $8.1K | -$263.25 | 60% 798-534 (1332) |
 smellyEllie | Noavg 87.6¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$3.05 | 50% 935-946 (1881) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 86.4¢ | $252.88 | $77.1 | -$2.07 | 42% 5180-7105 (12285) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $24 | $25 | +$1 | 57% 3046-2291 (5337) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $4.99 | $2.34 | -$2.65 | 57% 12908-9833 (22741) |
tetraseInvested
$8,373.07
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$263.25
Record
60%
798-534 (1332)
smellyEllieInvested
$3,544.27
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$3.05
Record
50%
935-946 (1881)
Invested
$252.88
Value
$77.1
PnL
-$2.07
Record
42%
5180-7105 (12285)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
$25
PnL
+$1
Record
57%
3046-2291 (5337)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$2.65
Record
57%
12908-9833 (22741)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.