Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $45 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$45.28

Combined PnL

-$96.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$43.04

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.25

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL-$96.9

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$42.84	$43.04	+$0.19	77% 9130-2738 (11868)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$108.19	$1.75	-$77.54	53% 3156-2749 (5905)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$10.63	$0.26	-$10.36	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$4.62	$0.11	-$4.51	25% 180-534 (714)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.04	$0.05	-$1.99	19% 49-210 (259)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.31	$0.03	-$1.28	30% 367-838 (1205)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.25	$0.03	-$1.22	31% 364-814 (1178)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$42.84

Value

$43.04

PnL

+$0.19

Record

77%

9130-2738 (11868)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.19

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$77.54

Record

53%

3156-2749 (5905)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.63

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$10.36

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.62

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.51

Record

25%

180-534 (714)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.99

Record

19%

49-210 (259)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.28

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.22

Record

31%

364-814 (1178)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.