Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $51 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$50.95

Combined PnL

-$19.13

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$49.95

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1

Total Shares997

Combined PnL-$19.18

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.9	$49.95	+$0.05	77% 9130-2738 (11868)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$8.82	$0.43	-$8.39	53% 3156-2749 (5905)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$6.75	$0.34	-$6.41	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.04	$0.1	-$1.94	19% 49-210 (259)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.31	$0.06	-$1.25	30% 367-838 (1205)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.25	$0.06	-$1.18	31% 364-814 (1178)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

77%

9130-2738 (11868)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.82

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$8.39

Record

53%

3156-2749 (5905)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$6.41

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.04

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.94

Record

19%

49-210 (259)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.25

Record

30%

367-838 (1205)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.18

Record

31%

364-814 (1178)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8644.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

8745.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.