Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Tom Francis announced as next James Bond?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $109 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$109.37

Combined PnL

$44.14

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$49.55

Total Shares50

Combined PnL+$0.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$59.82

Total Shares3,462

Combined PnL+$44.04

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$49.45	$49.55	+$0.1	77% 8870-2629 (11499)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$5.19	$33.86	+$28.67	18% 519-2318 (2837)
ImJustKenCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$6.06	$17.58	+$11.52	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$4.52	$8.38	+$3.85	73% 8250-3112 (11362)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$49.55

PnL

+$0.1

Record

77%

8870-2629 (11499)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$33.86

PnL

+$28.67

Record

18%

519-2318 (2837)

ImJustKenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.06

Value

$17.58

PnL

+$11.52

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$8.38

PnL

+$3.85

Record

73%

8250-3112 (11362)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.0%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4964.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

5064.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.