Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
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7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $3 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.6
-$113.06
2¢ → 0.1¢
-97% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagooddayCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $299.68 | $1.64 | -$74.16 | 53% 3156-2749 (5905) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $26.57 | $0.66 | -$25.91 | 60% 7176-4688 (11864) |
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.9 | $0.12 | -$4.78 | 19% 49-210 (259) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.62 | $0.11 | -$4.51 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.31 | $0.03 | -$1.28 | 30% 367-838 (1205) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $1.25 | $0.03 | -$1.22 | 31% 364-814 (1178) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $31.92 | $0.02 | -$1.21 | 55% 6018-4905 (10923) |
Invested
$299.68
Value
$1.64
PnL
-$74.16
Record
53%
3156-2749 (5905)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$0.66
PnL
-$25.91
Record
60%
7176-4688 (11864)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$4.78
Record
19%
49-210 (259)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$4.51
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.28
Record
30%
367-838 (1205)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.22
Record
31%
364-814 (1178)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.21
Record
55%
6018-4905 (10923)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.