Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ratchaburi FC win on 2026-10-30?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 4.0¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$1.6K
$280.8
51.2¢ → 4¢
-92% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 51¢ | $413.29 | $664.51 | +$251.22 | 49% 18979-19390 (38369) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $654.04 | $625.74 | -$28.3 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Noavg 51.6¢ | $250.07 | $288.04 | +$37.97 | 58% 28411-20972 (49383) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $17.49 | $35.66 | +$25.8 | 52% 3994-3637 (7631) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $13.56 | $11.4 | -$4.99 | 59% 9914-6887 (16801) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $7.98 | $7.08 | -$0.9 | 54% 56315-48472 (104787) |
Invested
$413.29
Value
$664.51
PnL
+$251.22
Record
49%
18979-19390 (38369)
Invested
$654.04
Value
$625.74
PnL
-$28.3
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$250.07
Value
$288.04
PnL
+$37.97
Record
58%
28411-20972 (49383)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.49
Value
$35.66
PnL
+$25.8
Record
52%
3994-3637 (7631)
poshposh<$100Invested
$13.56
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$4.99
Record
59%
9914-6887 (16801)
RN1<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.08
PnL
-$0.9
Record
54%
56315-48472 (104787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.