Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (70%) · Yes at 85¢ · $721 held · ends Nov 6

Yes85¢No15¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$721.07

Combined PnL

-$54.07

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 84.6¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes85%

No15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$536.69

Total Shares561

Combined PnL-$29.23

No3 traders

Total Value$34.3

Total Shares192

Combined PnL-$24.84

Yes — 70%No — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Yesavg 61.3¢	$334.1	$303.87	-$25.18	14% 461-2758 (3219)
LornaPredictsARB<$100	Yesavg 66.1¢	$109.15	$150.08	+$40.93	20% 2590-10277 (12867)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.1¢	$81.04	$104.17	+$23.13
└ No leg	Noavg 9.2¢	$28.11	$45.92	+$17.8
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 88.9¢	$88.14	$88.05	-$0.09	41% 6218-9125 (15343)
WA WarriorH<$100	Yesavg 94.8¢	$58.52	$56.85	-$1.67	17% 1249-5908 (7157)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 18.8¢	$41.64	$28.16	-$13.37	28% 485-1268 (1753)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 92.4¢	$27.34	$26.67	-$0.67	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 92.8¢	$24.15	$23.52	-$0.75	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100	Yesavg 90.1¢	$20.08	$19.62	-$0.46	25% 1720-5244 (6964)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 92.1¢	$22.74	$18.12	-$0.4	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 24.7¢	$17.63	$5.71	-$11.92	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 2.1¢	$0.15	$0.43	+$0.45	59% 11839-8177 (20016)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$334.1

Value

$303.87

PnL

-$25.18

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

LornaPredictsARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$109.15

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$40.93

Record

20%

2590-10277 (12867)

Both legs:

Yes$81.0466.1¢+$23.13

No$28.119.2¢+$17.8

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.14

Value

$88.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

41%

6218-9125 (15343)

WarriorH<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.52

Value

$56.85

PnL

-$1.67

Record

17%

1249-5908 (7157)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$28.16

PnL

-$13.37

Record

28%

485-1268 (1753)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.34

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$0.67

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.15

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$0.75

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.08

Value

$19.62

PnL

-$0.46

Record

25%

1720-5244 (6964)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.74

Value

$18.12

PnL

-$0.4

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$17.63

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$11.92

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.45

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.2%

84.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.