Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 81¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 6

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$442.73

Combined PnL

$52.25

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 80.6¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$375.87

Total Shares434

Combined PnL+$29.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$66.63

Total Shares570

Combined PnL+$23.1

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 91.8¢	$133.19	$104.42	-$4.01	73% 13760-5199 (18959)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 93.6¢	$107.3	$93.91	-$13.39	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$85.97	$79.55	+$5.58	26% 554-1607 (2161)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 24.4¢	$17.43	$60.14	+$42.71	46% 9372-11125 (20497)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 2¢	$144.88	$33.72	-$8.5	19% 2850-12163 (15013)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.76	$32.92	+$31.6	44% 2281-2898 (5179)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 87.2¢	$17.44	$17.35	-$0.09	52% 30788-28931 (59719)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$17.34	$16.01	-$1.33	40% 6503-9752 (16255)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$9.94	$4.5	-$0.33	54% 12396-10601 (22997)

Lucerys

Invested

$133.19

Value

$104.42

PnL

-$4.01

Record

73%

13760-5199 (18959)

cigarettes

Invested

$107.3

Value

$93.91

PnL

-$13.39

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$85.97

Value

$79.55

PnL

+$5.58

Record

26%

554-1607 (2161)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$17.43

Value

$60.14

PnL

+$42.71

Record

46%

9372-11125 (20497)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.88

Value

$33.72

PnL

-$8.5

Record

19%

2850-12163 (15013)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$31.6

Record

44%

2281-2898 (5179)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.44

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

30788-28931 (59719)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$17.34

Value

$16.01

PnL

-$1.33

Record

40%

6503-9752 (16255)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.94

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.33

Record

54%

12396-10601 (22997)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.4%

80.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.