Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will IK Oddevold win on 2026-10-30?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 28¢ · $854 held · ended Oct 30

Yes72¢No28¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$854.29

Combined PnL

$22.34

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 28.5¢

-30% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes72%

No28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$829.23

Total Shares2,022

Combined PnL+$23.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$25.06

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.93

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KY Kyn008CTR	Noavg 40¢	$472.84	$484.66	+$11.82	49% 234-241 (475)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Noavg 41¢	$247.42	$247.42	+$9.05	47% 2470-2777 (5247)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$49.2	$49.2	+$1.8	58% 28421-20980 (49401)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$42.22	$41.22	+$0.5	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$19.07	$19.19	+$0.13	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 73¢	$6.93	$5.87	-$1.06	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$3.17	$3.45	+$0.28	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 43.3¢	$3.46	$3.28	-$0.18	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

Kyn008CTR

Invested

$472.84

Value

$484.66

PnL

+$11.82

Record

49%

234-241 (475)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Invested

$247.42

Value

$247.42

PnL

+$9.05

Record

47%

2470-2777 (5247)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$49.2

Value

$49.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

58%

28421-20980 (49401)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$42.22

Value

$41.22

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.07

Value

$19.19

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.93

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$1.06

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.