Will IK Brage win on 2026-10-30?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$33.14

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 93.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,521

Combined PnL+$27.92

Yes3 traders

Total Value$60.59

Total Shares295

Combined PnL+$5.22

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$17.56	50% 24858-24564 (49422)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92.9¢	$999.31	$1.0K	+$6.71	50% 33199-32726 (65925)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$669.6	$673.2	+$3.6	49% 12488-12848 (25336)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$40.94	$45.25	+$4.31	53% 15882-14070 (29952)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$12.29	$14.34	+$2.05	49% 234-241 (475)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	54% 6194-5243 (11437)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$2.14	$1	-$1.14	52% 4004-3650 (7654)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,382.61

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$17.56

Record

50%

24858-24564 (49422)

SnakeBall

Invested

$999.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.71

Record

50%

33199-32726 (65925)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$669.6

Value

$673.2

PnL

+$3.6

Record

49%

12488-12848 (25336)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.94

Value

$45.25

PnL

+$4.31

Record

53%

15882-14070 (29952)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.29

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$2.05

Record

49%

234-241 (475)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6194-5243 (11437)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.14

Value

PnL

-$1.14

Record

52%

4004-3650 (7654)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.