Will Ostersunds FK win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$8.0K
$819.3
88.1¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Momo63 | Noavg 88¢ | $7.0K | $7.9K | +$879.6 | 93% 855-61 (916) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 90.3¢ | $190.28 | $127.11 | -$63.17 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.89 | $2.95 | +$0.06 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $2.48 | +$0.78 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $37.71 | $0.88 | +$2.04 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
Invested
$7,034.8
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$879.6
Record
93%
855-61 (916)
Invested
$190.28
Value
$127.11
PnL
-$63.17
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.89
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.78
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$37.71
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$2.04
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.