Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-10-27?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 38¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$5.1K
$46.88
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR | Yesavg 48¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$114.64 | 55% 1671-1366 (3037) |
 us391 | Noavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$81.56 | 51% 1631-1570 (3201) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 51.2¢ | $147.67 | $144.34 | -$3.33 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $61.53 | $79.91 | +$18.38 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $6 | $4.75 | -$1.25 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
Invested
$2,751.44
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$114.64
Record
55%
1671-1366 (3037)
us391Invested
$2,120.67
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$81.56
Record
51%
1631-1570 (3201)
Invested
$147.67
Value
$144.34
PnL
-$3.33
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$61.53
Value
$79.91
PnL
+$18.38
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$6
Value
$4.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.