Will Landskrona BoIS vs. Varbergs BoIS end in a draw?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 55¢ · $227 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$226.77
$3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 76¢ | $201.67 | $203 | +$1.33 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $9.84 | $9.75 | -$0.08 | 53% 15683-13856 (29539) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $3.31 | $5.75 | +$2.43 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $3.45 | $4.05 | +$0.6 | 52% 5822-5445 (11267) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $4 | $2.81 | -$1.19 | 50% 24135-23755 (47890) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.5 | $1.41 | -$0.09 | 50% 11961-12111 (24072) |
Invested
$201.67
Value
$203
PnL
+$1.33
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
Invested
$9.84
Value
$9.75
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
15683-13856 (29539)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.31
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$2.43
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.6
Record
52%
5822-5445 (11267)
Invested
$4
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$1.19
Record
50%
24135-23755 (47890)
Invested
$1.5
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0.09
Record
50%
11961-12111 (24072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.