Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Vasteraas SK win on 2026-11-01?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 0.1¢ · $881 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
2 arb excluded
$881.08
-$998.85
40.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 11.3¢ | $341.01 | $321.83 | -$19.17 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 11.3¢ | $306.72 | $216.7 | -$90.03 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30¢ | $34.28 | $105.14 | +$70.85 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 46.9¢ | $1.0K | $199.7 | -$826.47 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 61.3¢ | $138.72 | $147.6 | +$8.87 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 61.3¢ | $100.77 | $116.8 | +$16.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.7¢ | $37.95 | $30.8 | -$7.15 | |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 86.9¢ | $90.68 | $99.17 | +$8.49 | 54% 6427-5413 (11840) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $53.28 | $64.37 | +$11.1 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
 HRTradingCTR | Noavg 49.1¢ | $119.59 | $19.86 | -$99.73 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.1¢ | $24.25 | $17.59 | -$6.67 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 18.7¢ | $96.53 | $10.95 | -$85.58 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
Invested
$341.01
Value
$321.83
PnL
-$19.17
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,026.18
Value
$199.7
PnL
-$826.47
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$138.72
Value
$147.6
PnL
+$8.87
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.68
Value
$99.17
PnL
+$8.49
Record
54%
6427-5413 (11840)
Invested
$53.28
Value
$64.37
PnL
+$11.1
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$119.59
Value
$19.86
PnL
-$99.73
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
Invested
$24.25
Value
$17.59
PnL
-$6.67
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$96.53
Value
$10.95
PnL
-$85.58
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.