Vasteraas SK vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$91.86

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 88¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,763

Combined PnL+$95.75

Over2 traders

Total Value$41.76

Total Shares165

Combined PnL-$3.89

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 83.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$67.43	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 41.1¢	$68.33	$131.13	+$28.31	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$29.58	$23.82	-$5.75	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16.07	$17.93	+$1.87	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,352.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$67.43

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$68.33

Value

$131.13

PnL

+$28.31

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.58

Value

$23.82

PnL

-$5.75

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.07

Value

$17.93

PnL

+$1.87

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.