Vasteraas SK vs. IF Brommapojkarna: O/U 0.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$66.98
77.9¢ → 100¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 92.3¢ | $309.19 | $405.83 | +$96.63 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.4¢ | $148.44 | $309.51 | +$161.07 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 92.3¢ | $160.75 | $96.31 | -$64.44 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 74.7¢ | $302.67 | $268.52 | -$34.16 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 5.3¢ | $19.03 | $134.65 | +$115.62 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 88.5¢ | $92 | $100 | +$8 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 82.1¢ | $102.3 | $82.08 | -$20.22 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 82.1¢ | $77.55 | $57.86 | -$19.69 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 39.6¢ | $24.75 | $24.22 | -$0.53 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $11.45 | $12.76 | +$1.31 | 53% 5642-5057 (10699) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 88.2¢ | $8.86 | $10.47 | +$1.61 | 58% 10670-7658 (18328) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 32.8¢ | $159.6 | $0.24 | -$159.36 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
Invested
$309.19
Value
$405.83
PnL
+$96.63
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Both legs:
Invested
$302.67
Value
$268.52
PnL
-$34.16
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Invested
$19.03
Value
$134.65
PnL
+$115.62
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
Invested
$92
Value
$100
PnL
+$8
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
Invested
$102.3
Value
$82.08
PnL
-$20.22
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.45
Value
$12.76
PnL
+$1.31
Record
53%
5642-5057 (10699)
poshposh<$100Invested
$8.86
Value
$10.47
PnL
+$1.61
Record
58%
10670-7658 (18328)
Invested
$159.6
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$159.36
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.