Vasteraas SK vs. IF Brommapojkarna: Both Teams to Score
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $596 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$595.76
$49.36
77.1¢ → 98¢
+27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76.4¢ | $195.52 | $250.88 | +$55.36 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $263.82 | $198.88 | -$64.94 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36¢ | $224.68 | $149.93 | -$74.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.4¢ | $39.14 | $48.96 | +$9.81 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $79 | $98 | +$19 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 59¢ | $73 | $48 | -$25 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$195.52
Value
$250.88
PnL
+$55.36
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$263.82
Value
$198.88
PnL
-$64.94
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Both legs:
Invested
$79
Value
$98
PnL
+$19
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$73
Value
$48
PnL
-$25
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.