Will IF Brommapojkarna win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 72¢ · $136 held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$135.62

Combined PnL

$6.04

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$64.2

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$3.73

No3 traders

Total Value$71.42

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$9.77

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$67.93	$64.2	-$3.73	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$51.15	$56.93	+$5.78	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$7.35	$9.99	+$2.64	54% 6435-5416 (11851)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 70¢	$3.15	$4.5	+$1.35	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.93

Value

$64.2

PnL

-$3.73

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$51.15

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$5.78

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$2.64

Record

54%

6435-5416 (11851)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.